Emirates NBD Earnings Presentation
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
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The IMF recently joined the private sector consensus in upgrading its growth
forecast for the UAE, taking it to 2.4% for 2010 and 3.2% in 2011. At Emirates
NBD we expect 2.5% and 4.0% respectively.
Local growth is benefiting from the price of, and the demand for, hydrocarbons
and recovering world trade.
The latest UAE Purchasing Managers Index for September shows the
economy stabilizing, with a modest expansion underway.
The success of Dubai's recent bond issue is creating renewed confidence,
helping to bring foreign capital back to the country. Global monetary easing is
also helping local interest rates to start to decline.
The UAE has been added to the FTSE secondary emerging markets index,
making it more attractive for capital inflows
Promising signs for oil (USD)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001
2002
2003
Brent oil $ per Barrel
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rolling 1 year moving average
2010
Source: Bloomberg
Emirates NBD
14
9
4
-1
UAE Real GDP Growth in Context (%)
-6
2005
2006
2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
UAE
US
MENA
Singapore
EU
UK
Hong Kong
Source: IMF October World Economic Outlook
UAE GDP Composition (%)
UAE GDP by Sector (2009)
100% USD 249b
=
Financials 6%
Tourism & Agriculture
2%
leisure 2%
Others 1%
Components of UAE GDP (2009)
=
100% USD 249b
Net Exports
6%
Transport &
comms 7%
Govt. 8%
Real estate
8%
Oil & Gas
29%
Trade 9%
Construction
11%
Manufacturin
g 16%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Private
Consumption
48%
Govt.
Purchases
19%
Private
Investment
27%
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