H1 FY21 Finance and Cost Analysis slide image

H1 FY21 Finance and Cost Analysis

MANGANESE MARKET Global supply remains tight despite rebound, supporting ore prices CY21 outlook to be driven by supply with alloy demand expected to remain strong Long term price to be set by marginal South African supply transitioning underground over time Manganese ore supply (Mt, Mn content unadjusted) Seaborne exports 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Manganese ore price and China port stocks(a) (US$/dmtu; Mt; months) Since Q2 CY20, seaborne exports have recovered, albeit below CY19 levels 8 7 4 6 5 + 3 2 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 CY19 CY19 CY19 CY19 CY20 Q2 CY20 Q3 Q4 Jan-19 Jul-19 CY20 CY20 Mn ore port stocks ■Gabon ■Ghana Brazil Rest of world Source: GTIS. ■South Africa Australia Port consumption months based on 12 month normalised demand from alloy producers. Notes: a. III SOUTH32 Despite build in total port stocks, consumption months of inventory are largely unchanged since CY19 Prices continue to respond to supply disruptions Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Mn ore 44% Mn, CIF China Port consumption months Mn ore 37% Mn, FOB Port Elizabeth Source: South32 industry analysis, Fastmarkets, Ferroalloy.net. SLIDE 28
View entire presentation