H1 FY21 Finance and Cost Analysis
MANGANESE MARKET
Global supply remains tight despite
rebound, supporting ore prices
CY21 outlook to be driven by supply
with alloy demand expected to remain strong
Long term price to be set by marginal
South African supply transitioning
underground over time
Manganese ore supply
(Mt, Mn content unadjusted)
Seaborne exports
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Manganese ore price and China port stocks(a)
(US$/dmtu; Mt; months)
Since Q2 CY20, seaborne
exports have recovered,
albeit below CY19 levels
8
7
4
6 5 + 3 2
1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
CY19
CY19
CY19
CY19
CY20
Q2
CY20
Q3
Q4
Jan-19
Jul-19
CY20
CY20
Mn ore port stocks
■Gabon
■Ghana
Brazil Rest of world
Source: GTIS.
■South Africa Australia
Port consumption months based on 12 month normalised demand from alloy producers.
Notes:
a.
III
SOUTH32
Despite build in total port stocks,
consumption months of inventory are
largely unchanged since CY19
Prices continue to
respond to supply
disruptions
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Mn ore 44% Mn, CIF China
Port consumption months
Mn ore 37% Mn, FOB Port Elizabeth
Source: South32 industry analysis, Fastmarkets, Ferroalloy.net.
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