Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS -
USING MANAGEMENT CASES
Relative contribution based on forecasted distributions received in the status quo scenario
4
IMPLIED AM / AMGP EXCHANGE RATIO
($ in millions)
Ownership Entity
AR-Held AM Common Units
AM Public Holders
AMGP Common Shares
Series B Units
Total
2019E
$219
(4)
195
165
12
$591
Distribution Forecasts
2020E 2021E 2022E
$282 $338 $405
252
249
19
Implied Exchange Ratio - AR 2.490x 2.128x
302
324
26
362
414
33
$802 $990 $1,214
1.963x 1.845x
Terminal
Value (1)
$4,857
4,336
6,366
509
Present Value
1.437x
PV-10% PV-15% PV-20%
$4,230 $3,575 $3,049
3,776 3,192 2,722
5,155 4,332
411
345
3,672
292
$16,069 $13,572 $11,443 $9,735
1.545x 1.555x 1.564x
1
% Ownership Implied
PV-10%
31.2%
27.8%
38.0%
3.0%
100.0%
1.545x
PV-15%
31.2%
27.9%
37.9%
3.0%
100.0%
Confidentiat
1.555x
31.3%
Equity
(3)
PV-20% VS. Exchange All-In
28.0%
37.7%
3.0%!
100.0%
1
1.564x
Source: Management projections.
(1) Utilizes terminal yield values defined in prior sections of this presentation. Series B terminal value equal to the AMGP terminal value.
(2) AMGP includes only Series A cash flow.
(3)
Represents implied ownership percentages all merger consideration were in the form of equity in AMGP Corp (ie. accounts for cash consideration being issued to AR-held AM Common Units and
AM Public Holders.
All-in implied exchange ratio, including cash. Based on 20-day VWAP as of October 5, 2018
Proposal at
31.2%
28.7%
36.7%
3.4%
BAIRD
100.0%
1.602x
32.4%
30.1%
34.3%
3.2%
100.0%
(4)
1.776x
Project Bronco | Page 74View entire presentation