H1 FY21 Finance and Cost Analysis
ALUMINA MARKET
III
SOUTH32
Growth in Chinese imports and strong smelter
margins have supported price recovery
China annualised monthly alumina imports and prices
(Alumina price US$/t LHS; kt RHS)
Cost curve expected to shift upwards in CY21
due to rising energy and caustic soda costs
Cost curve expected to lift in the long term
due to raw material cost increases and
deterioration of Chinese bauxite quality
Alumina cost curve (CY21 and CY30)(a)
(US$/t)
350
300
250
200
5-year average at ~2,300ktpa
450
400
350
Seaborne prices have
300
rebounded ~34% off lows
6,000
250
5,000
200
4,000
150
3,000
100
2,000
1,000
50
50
Jul
CY19
Sep
CY19
Nov
CY19
Jan
CY20
Mar
CY20
May
CY20
Jul
CY20
Sep
CY20
Nov
CY20
Jan
CY21
Platts CFR China
Imports (RHS)
Platts China Shanxi Ex-Works (CFR equivalent)
Source: GTIS, China Custom, Platts, South32 analysis.
CY30 cost curve (b)(c)
Spot price at
~US$300/t(d)
Australia
China (domestic bauxite)
Middle East & Africa
Americas
China (imported bauxite)
Other
Europe
Source: CRU.
Notes:
a.
b.
Illustrates business costs which represent cash costs net of premiums (normalised to FOB Australia price).
CY30 cost curve in January 2021 real terms.
C.
Future production volumes include current and planned expansions and projects.
SLIDE 29
d.
Platts FOB Australia price as at 15 February 2021.View entire presentation