H1 2023 EBITDA Overview and Oyu Tolgoi Outlook
Strong Chinese iron ore imports absorbing supply gains
China's crude steel production (Mt annualised)
1200
Iron Ore¹ (-15% YoY)
$/dmt
250
1100
1000
900
150
200
58
100
50
50
800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
5 Yr range
-----5 Yr avg
2022
2023
Iron ore (US$/dmt)
HY Average
Seaborne Iron Ore supply run rate (Mt annualised²)
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
Although China's steel demand recovery encountered headwinds, crude steel production
increased by 3% YoY during H1
Disruptions to scrap processing and availability, compounded by electricity shortages, helped
lift China's pig iron production by 5% YoY during H1
This absorbed the 6% YoY increase in China's H1 iron ore imports, while domestic iron ore
supply continues to experience significant safety and environmental challenges
Meanwhile, Chinese steel exports trended up sharply towards 100 million tonne annualised
run-rates, last observed in 2016
Seaborne iron ore supply performed strongly during the first half of the year, with June
shipments from Australia and Brazil estimated at or close to all-time highs
1100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total iron ore exports rose 5% YoY in H1, comprising a 2.5% increase from the major
producers, >75% YoY rise of India's shipments, and 10% YoY gains from Canada
5 Yr range
-----5 Yr avg
2022
2023
Rio Tinto
©2023, Rio Tinto, All Rights Reserved
¹Monthly average Platts (CFR) index for 62% iron fines | 2Total seaborne suppliers annualised, reported at 100% | YoY = change in average price during first half compared to previous year
Sources: Rio Tinto Market Analysis, NBS, Kpler, S&P Global
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