Global Banking and Markets Overview

Canadian Housing Market Engineered soft landing, stability expected in 2019 ⚫ National: Sales and prices have rebounded and market conditions are in equilibrium1: 。 Average sales prices have increased in two consecutive months. Composite MLS Home Price Index² is stable (top right chart) 。 Sales-to-new listings ratio at 54.7% in April 2019, well within the 44-64% range consistent with balanced housing demand and supply • Greater Toronto: Conditions are largely balanced, which indicate steady near-term price gains Great Vancouver: Sales activity remains weak after new taxes came into effect on January 1, 2019 (bottom right chart). Expect a return to positive price and sales gains later this year supported by strong job creation and immigration Price Growth by Dwelling Type 20 Single Family ■. Townhouse Apartment ⚫ Composite 15 10 5 0 MLS Home Price Index, aggregate, -5 y/y % change 2017 2018 2019 Toronto & Vancouver Home Sales 140 home sales, 000s of units annualized, SA Greater Toronto 120 Canada Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 100 m/m* m/m* y/y** Sales (% change) 2.3 3.6 4.2 80 New listings (% change) 3.4 2.7 2.8 60 Average price (% change) 60 1.4 1.4 0.3 Greater Vancouver Mar-19 Apr-19 40 Sales-to-new listings ratio (level)* 54.3 54.8 Months inventory (level)* 5.5 5.3 20 *Seasonally adjusted **Not seasonally adjusted 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 Sales and listings figures reported in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms, while MLS HPI growth rates reported as non-seasonally-adjusted y/y. Data as of April, 2019 2 Measure of real estate price appreciation that removes distortions related to variations in the mix of sales across unit types 3 Sources for charts and table: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. Actual 10-year avg. 16 17 18 19 Scotiabank® 40 40

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