2021 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
Strong outlook as economic activity
broadens
20.8%
5.9%
Ireland
11.0%
6.5%
9.0%
6.2%
2020a
2021f
2022f
■GDP1
Unemployment²
UK
5.2%
5.2%
4.6%
6.8%
5.8%
(9.8%)
Bank of Ireland 2021 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
Outlook for Irish economy continues to improve
.
•
•
Recovery continued in H1 2021
multinational sector leading recovery (GDP +10.7% y/y
in Q1 2021)
domestic economy expected to perform strongly in
H2 2021 supported by growth of €18.5bn (+16.4%) in
household deposits since the onset of the pandemic
Irish government fiscal supports, equivalent to 22.7% of GNI*3
will continue to provide important breathing room over the
coming months
Irish unemployment rate projected to reduce in 2021 and 2022
New housing commencements (25,501 in the 12 months to May
2021) are now in-line with pre-pandemic levels, having troughed
at 17,708 in the 12 months to Mar 2021
While there have been some challenges following last
December's deal on Brexit, we see indications that most
businesses are increasingly adjusting to the new trading
arrangements
Ireland vaccination rollout amongst the most successful in EU.
c.85% of adults have received at least one dose, with c.70% now
fully vaccinated
2020a
2021f
GDP¹
Unemployment²
2022f
Sources: Forecasts (July 2021) by Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit; CSO; ECDC; Central Bank of Ireland; ONS; Department of Finance;
Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage
1 Annual real growth
2 Q4 rate for both Ireland and UK; Ireland unemployment is the COVID-adjusted rate as calculated by the CSO
3 GNI*, or Modified Gross National Income, is an indicator designed to exclude globalisation effects that are disproportionally impacting
the measurement of the size of the Irish economy
Bank of Ireland
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