H1 2020 Credit Presentation slide image

H1 2020 Credit Presentation

H1 2020 impairment charge €937m - prudent and comprehensive approach H1 2020 • • IFRS 9 models macro-economic update €432m Updated IFRS 9 models incorporating impact of Forward Looking Information (FLI) from latest macro- economic outlook Central scenario¹ assumes a deep downturn, gradual recovery and an orderly Brexit Reduced weighting towards upside scenario Will reflect mitigating impacts of government support schemes Bank of Ireland H1 2020 Credit Presentation Payment breaks Actual loan loss experience €184m Management adjustment to reflect increased risk related to: Estimated rates of migration from payment breaks to forbearance / arrears Assessment of mortgages, consumer loans, higher impacted sectors at risk from COVID-19 impact €321m Actual loan loss experience on Stage 3 loans: - Property and construction €179m, includes €166m related to legacy investment property exposures Non-property SME and corporate €115m Mortgage and consumer portfolios €27m - - 2020 Outlook • A change in the macro- economic outlook would lead to a change in IFRS 9 expected credit loss H1 2020 impairment charge incorporates risk of credit migration of customers on payment breaks Actual loss experience in H2 will reflect timing of loan migration to Stage 3 and final payment break outcomes While uncertainties remain, subject to no further deterioration in the economic environment or outlook, 2020 impairment charge expected to be in a range of c.€1.1bn to €1.3bn 1 See slide 48 for 2020-2024 macro-economic assumptions used in IFRS 9 models Bank of Ireland 16
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