2Q 2020 Investor Presentation
Default Rate Forecast Rises in Wake of
Unprecedented Turmoil
Default Rates for Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance¹
-Global -U.S. Europe
Speculative-Grade Covenant Quality Indicators²
-U.S. Bonds
-European Bonds
Weakening
-U.S. Loans
5.0
4.54x
4.23x
3.91x
4.5
12%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
4.0
9%
MOODY'S
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4.1% global
3.5
historic average1
6%
3.0
2.5
2.0
2019
1Q20
2.
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through June 30,2020. 2020 forecast for TTM ended December 31, 2020.
Covenant data for European bonds represent a three quarter rolling average, North American loans and bonds represent a two quarter rolling and a three month rolling average, respectively.
Source: Moody's Investors Service.
2Q20
2020F
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1Q 2020
Improving
2Q 2020 Investor Presentation - August 11, 2020
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