Investor Presentation
CA: Growth in Household Credit
•
.
Total household credit growth, in annual nominal terms, had slowed considerably since the 2007 peak of
13.4% y/y. But household credit growth has picked up rapidly throughout 2021 and into 2022, reaching
8.9% y/y for the rolling quarter ending Feb. 2022, the highest rate since mid-2010.
Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e., cards, HELOCs, unsecured lines, auto loans, etc.)
grew by 2.2% y/y for the rolling quarter ending Feb. 2022. Consumer loan growth has trended downward.
since late-2000 highs of over 16.6% y/y and declined further during the pandemic on refinancing into
secured credit, but the most recent two quarters reflect signs of strengthening consumer demand and
spending.
• Mortgage credit grew at 10.7% y/y in the rolling quarter ending Feb. 2022 vs the 2007 peak of 14.1% y/y.
Underlying demand, pandemic-induced moves, and relatively low five-year rates have driven a rebound
in the pace of growth.
20
20
15
Household Credit Growth
%, 3-month moving average
y/y %
change
Consumer Loan Growth
25
20
15
10
5
%, 3-month moving average
y/y %
change
Residential Mortgage Growth
20
%, 3-month moving average
15
y/y %
change
10
m/m%
5
change,
SA
0
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
Statistics Canada.
10
-5
-10
m/m%
change, SA
5
m/m%
change,
SA
-15
0
-20
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
Statistics Canada.
Statistics Canada.
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