International Banking and Canadian Economic Insights
Canadian Housing Market
Engineered moderation of price and volume
Significant Moderation in Price Growth*
25
20
15
Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price
Index Y/Y Percentage Change
Volume of Home Sales Near 10-Year Average*
50
Units, 000s
45
Monthly home sales
110
5
0
-5
-10
40
40
35
30
25
10-year monthly moving avg.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Seasonally adjusted
20
20
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
10 MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
5
4.43
0
-5
-10
Average
-0.88
-9.41
7.29
Decline in Share of High Risk Mortgages
25
% Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income
ratio greater than 450%
20
15
-3.49
-3.21
10
5
Mortgage
insurance
rules
tightened¦
Guideline
B-20
revised
-15
GTA
GVA
Montreal
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
Calgary Edmonton
0
Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
High-ratio mortgages
Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18
Low-ratio mortgages
Total mortgages
Source: Bank of Canada Financial System Review 2019
1 Sources for charts and table: Bank of Canada Financial System Review 2019 (Data as of December 31, 2018); CREA; MLS Home Price Index growth rates reported as non seasonally-adjusted y/y (Data as of July 2019)
Scotiabank®
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