KASIKORNBANK Cyber Security and Financial Services Update
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2024 (as of 12 December 2023)
дол%
Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions
1.5
2.6
2.5
-8.0
2021
2022
2023F
3.1
2024F
Key Points:
■Thai GDP in 2024 is expected to grow 3.1%, up from 2.5%
projected for 2023, mainly driven by a continuous rebound in
tourism sector, export rebound, and government spending
■If the digital wallet scheme is implemented, the Thai GDP in 2024
may be accelerating to 3.6%
■However, uncertain global economic outlook may continue to
weigh on the Thai economic recovery
■ Average headline inflation for 2024 is expected to decline to 0.8%,
given lower pressure from global energy prices
■Thai economic recovery has been uneven and sluggish, having
only returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023
Risk Factors:
% YoY
2023F*
2021
2022
2024F*
(Dec 23)
2024F*
(Dec 23)
(Dec 23)
Base case
DW**
GDP
1.5
2.6
2.5
3.1
3.6
Private Consumption
0.6
6.3
7.0
2.8
3.8
Government Consumption
3.7
0.0
-4.9
2.0
2.0
Total Investment
3.1
2.3
1.2
2.3
2.6
- Private investment
3.0
5.1
2.0
3.0
3.3
- Public investment
3.4
-4.9
-1.0
1.5
1.5
Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
-4.8
-3.5
-3.3
-3.7
-3.7
Exports (Customs Basis)
17.4
5.5
-1.3
2.0
2.0
Imports (Customs Basis)
29.5
13.6
-3.3
2.6
2.8
■Rising geopolitical tensions
Current Account (USD bn)
-10.6
-16.9
6.8
9.3
8.5
■Fed funds rate and Thai Baht volatility
Headline Inflation
1.2
6.1
1.3
0.8
0.9
Avg Dubai Oil Price
68.8
97.0
82.0
72.5
72.5
No. of Foreign Tourists (Mn)
0.4
11.2
27.6
30.6
30.6
Policy Interest Rate***
0.50
1.25
2.50
2.50
2.50
■Household and business balance sheet deterioration
■Impacts of El Niño on farm production
■Global economic slowdown
Notes: MPC's policy rate is at 2.50% (as of November 29, 2023)
Source: KResearch (as of December 12, 2023)
**DW Including Digital Wallet Programe
*** KBank Capital Markets Research (as of December 13, 2023)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2024 (as of 18 December 2023)
■Global Economy
■Government Stimulus Plan
■Inflation
■Exports and Tourism
■Fed Policy Normalization
Baht
Outlook
■Global economy: Global economy is expected to grow at a slightly slower pace in 2024
amid lagged impact of monetary tightening, and China's sluggish recovery while
uncertainty remains with geopolitical issues
■US: After stronger-than-expected growth in 2023, the US economy is likely to slow
down due to tighter financial condition but is likely to achieve a 'soft landing' in 2024
■ Eurozone: Eurozone economy is likely to gradually rebound in 2024 as inflation eases
but it is likely to see more impact from financial tightening
■China: China's economy is likely to recover at a weaker pace in 2024, despite several
supports from the government, as there is no sign of bottoming out in China's real
estate sector, which will continue to pressure household and business spending
■ASEAN economies: ASEAN economies will gradually recover in 2024 in consistent with
the global trade, but will continue to face uncertainty from the global economy
■Delay in budget approval for the 2024 fiscal year will impact budget disbursement in
1Q24. However, the government's economic stimulus measures that are set to take
effect from 2Q24 onwards are likely to be a key factor supporting domestic consumption
■ Average headline inflation for 2024 may drop to 0.8%, given lower pressure from global
energy prices while the government may maintain energy subsidy in 2024
■Thai exports may rebound to growth in 2024, partly due to low base effect
■Tourist arrivals in 2024 expected to accelerate to 30.6 million
■Fed would cut its interest rates totaling of 75bps starting in 2Q24 as the Fed would wait
and ensure that inflation will not surge back up again
■Baht is expected to be at 34.00 per USD at the end of 2024 as the difference between
the interest rates of the BOT and the Fed is likely to narrow and Thai economy is likely
to continue growing and the current account balance is likely to pose a bigger surplus
■However, Thai baht will be facing some volatility throughout next year due to several
risks in many area that will carry into 2024
Source: KResearch (as of December 18, 2023), and
KBank Capital Markets Research (as of December 13, 2023)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
Possible Impacts to Thai Economy
■The Thai economy will remain on its recovery path but
will still face uncertainty from the global economy
■Government stimulus measures may help boost
domestic consumption and GDP in 2024. If the digital
wallet scheme is implemented, the Thai GDP in 2024
may be accelerating to 3.6% from 3.1% in base case
■Domestic consumer spending will continue to expand
but at a decelerated pace after remarkable growth in
2023
■ A rebound in tourism sector will continue to be the
main driving factor for Thai economy, despite declining
momentum, while an export rebound will help support
the Thai economy in 2024
■■BOT's rate would reach its terminal level and would
maintain the current rate at 2.50% throughout 2024 to
ensure that inflationary pressures from government
stimulus as well as minimum wage hikes are well
contained
■Looking forward, the recent Thai current account has
surprisingly turned into a surplus with the continuous.
recovery of Thai tourism and economy
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