Third Quarter 2021 Investor Presentation
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses
Base Case Scenario
Next 12 months
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic Front Loaded
As at
July 31, 2021
As at
April 30, 2021
As at
July 31, 2021
As at
April 30, 2021
As at
July 31, 2021
As at
April 30, 2021
As at
As at
July 31, 2021 April 30, 2021
5.3
7.8
7.1
74
9.9
1.2
12
2.8
-5.7
-3.5
Unemployment rate, average %
6.5
6.7
5.8
6.1
9.0
9.3
11.9
12.2
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
6.7
8.2
8.5
10.3
3.6
4.8
Unemployment rate, average %
4.7
5.0
4.3
4.5
6.5
6.7
879
-0.5
0.9
7.8
8.0
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
65
62
71
70
58
54
62
52
50
Next 12 months
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables:
Base Case Scenario
Calendar Quarters
Calendar Quarters
Average
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
July 31
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2021
2021
2022
2022
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
Average
April 30
2021
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
6.4
5.2
4.7
5.1
5.3
14.1
6.6
5.3
5.2
7.8
Unemployment rate, average %
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.9
6.5
7.7
7.0
6.4
5.9
6.7
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
7.1
7.7
6.8
5.1
6.7
11.8
6.6
7.3
7.0
8.2
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.1
4.7
5.8
5.3
4.8
4.2
5.0
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
65
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of June 11, 2021
55
65
66
66
65
60
61
55
65
61
62
62
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