TECHNOLOGY @ RBC
IFRS 9 range of macroeconomic scenario assumptions (as of October 31)
Range of alternative scenarios (October 31, 2020)
Base case (October 31, 2020)
Canada Real GDP ($ Trillions)(1)
Base case (July 31, 2020)
Canada Unemployment Rate (%) (3)
Base case (October 31, 2019)
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
Q1-2020
Q2-2020
Q3-2020
Q4-2020
U.S. Real GDP (US$ Trillions)(2)
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q1-2022
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
Q4-2019
22.0
21.0
20.0
19.0
18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Q4-2019
Q2-2020
Q3-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q1-2020
Q4-2020
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q3-2022
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
Q2-2022
Q1-2022
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) (3)
14
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Q4-2022
Q4-2019
Q1-2020
Q2-2020
Q3-2020
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q1-2022
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate in US$)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Q3-2020
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q1-2022
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q4-2019
Q1-2020
Q2-2020
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Canadian housing price index
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
In our base forecast, we expect housing prices to grow by 0.6% over the
next 12 months, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% for the
following 2 to 5 years. The range of annual housing price growth (contraction)
in our alternative downside and upside scenarios is (29.6)% to 6.1% over the
next 12 months and 2.9% to 11.1% for the following 2 to 5 years.
RBC
For further details, refer to Note 5 of our 2020 Annual Report. (1) Represents the seasonally-adjusted annual rate indexed to 2012 Canadian dollars over the calendar quarters presented. (2) Represents the seasonally-adjusted annual
rate indexed to 2012 U.S. dollars over the calendar quarters presented. (3) Represents the average quarterly unemployment level over the period.
In our base forecast, we expect oil prices to recover from trough prices in
April 2020 to an average price of $43 per barrel over the next 12 months
and $48 per barrel in the following 2 to years. The range of average prices
in our alternative downside and upside scenarios is $23 to $49 per barrel for
the next 12 months and $35 to $50 per barrel for the following 2 to 5 years.
27 RISK REVIEWView entire presentation